Central Banks

More from the NAB business survey (on jobs and the RBA)

Data is here from (an embargo breaking release0:

and more detail here:

Just scanning through the report, this a little more on employment. Its important because the RBA confirmed last week they were looking at the labour market to decide on rates.

Via the NAB report:

  • What is the survey signalling for jobs growth? The employment index declined relatively sharply, and is now below average, after previously holding up better than the other activity indicators. 
  • At face value, the employment index based on historical relationships suggests ongoing employment growth of 14k per month – barely enough to see the labour market hold onto recent gains

And,  a little more:

  • Forward expectations from the NAB Quarterly survey suggest that firms’ hiring intentions over the next 3 and 12 months have eased, but for now remain elevated. 
  • An update on these measures will be available in July and, in combination with a few more months of labour market data, will provide a good guide to the impact of the slowing in activity to date on the labour market.

While not in today’s report, NAB chief economist Alan Oster is highlighting there is potential for three RBA rate cuts. NAB’s current forecast is for two. 

  
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