Central Banks

ECB minutes: Confidence in recovery in 2H 2019 somewhat lower

ECB releases the minutes of its April monetary policy meeting

  • However, data is still consistent with baseline scenario
  • Some recent data has been even weaker than expected
  • ECB should consider whether side effects of negative rates need mitigation
  • Signs of moderation in global activity have continued
  • Says that trade weakness is still seen persisting
  • Inflation remains uncomfortably below ECB’s target
  • Says that drop in long-term gauge of inflation expectations mainly reflects weaker economy and is not unanchoring


There isn’t anything new from the ECB here but if anything else, just take note that they still aren’t feeling optimistic about the inflation outlook. But they aren’t exactly all too worried either. Besides that, they’re still very much in wait-and-see mode on economic data before reacting/changing their forward guidance again.

Here’s a look at the EUR/USD coupled with the market’s long-term gauge of inflation expectations that they are talking about:

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