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These are the official PMI survey results, from NBS, for June 2019. The private survey PMIs (Caixin/Markit)will follow from Monday. Manufacturing 49.4 expected 49.5 (range of ‘expecteds’ was 49.0 to 50.1 according the Bloomberg survey of 29 analysts) prior 49.4 As you can see, unchanged on the month but down slightly on expected, and still
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Dollar weakness was the main theme The first trade I highlighted was selling USD/CHF . I noted that the pair had fallen in 10 of the past 12 Junes and it was its worst month on the calendar. I also highlighted the potential chart breakdown. Indeed the pair did breakdown and continued to break more
#forextrader #forexstrategy #priceaction One of the most popular ways to enter a trade is on a pullback – and for good reason! Joining a trend at a well timed pullback can be extremely effective, and in this video we talk about a method you can use to look for these types of setups. Want to
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What to look out for when markets open next week? Trump and Xi once again managed to use their affinity to help strike a compromise in getting trade talks back under way earlier today. Of note, Trump said that the US will not be levying new tariffs against China while also allowing for Huawei to
Positive news via China state media (Xinhua, CCTV) on a trade war truce: The US will not levy new tariffs on Chinese goods US and China to restart trade talks US and China trade teams will have talks on detailed issues US President Trump: We had an excellent meeting with Xi As good as it
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Forex news for New York trade on June 28, 2019: Market: Gold flat at $1409 WTI crude down $1.23 to $58.20 S&P 500 up 17 points to 2941 US 10-year yields down 1 bps to 2.00% NZD leads, JPY lags on the day The Canadian dollar made a pair of attempts to break out and
June usually isn’t a great month to buy stocks Changes for the S&P 500: Daily +0.6% (+17 points to 2941) Monthly +6.9% Quarterly +3.8% All the US indexes performed roughly in-line over the month, with gains around 7% and slight outperformance in the Nasdaq (+7.4%). This was really about the reversal of the Mexican tariffs.
Forex futures positioning data among non-commercial traders for the week ending June 25, 2019: EUR short 56K vs 52K short last week. Shorts increased by 4K GBP short 59K vs 53K short last week. Shorts increased by 6K JPY short 10K vs 17K short last week. Short trimmed by 7K CHF short 16k vs 15k short last week.
A few quick moves late A look at the charts today show why month-end is such a notorious time. Today’s month-end is especially viscous because it comes on a Friday and after a month of some pretty big moves in equities. I expected it to be worse but it was still a choppy ride. ForexLive
Non trending transitions to trending.. The EURUSD is mired in a 68 pip range this week. Putting that into perspective, there has not been a more narrow range week since 2004 (there was one other 68 pip range in 2014). Moreover, the range over the last 3 days is only 50 pips. The market
Six straight days of gains for NZD/JPY Catching a falling knife isn’t my style but it’s worked with NZD/JPY. The pair was the biggest percentage mover this week, climbing 2.3% in a rally to 72.41 from 70.60. All the commodity currencies did well this week but the catalyst for the kiwi was the RBNZ, which
Trades between swing levels over the last 3 days The GBPUSD failed to extend above recent swing high levels in the NY session. The Asian and London morning sessions failed to get below a lower swing level at 1.2661-706. We now trade between the 100 hour MA (at 1.2699) and the 200 hour MA (green
S&P and Nasdaq up 0.5% on the day now The US stocks are hitting a new session high. S&P index is up 15.30 points or 0.53% Nasdaq is up 42 ponite or 0.53% Dow is up 109 points or 0.41% Looking at the hourly chart of the Nasdaw the low this week Tuesday, stalled just
They knocked on the door (and the GBPUSD door opened), but pushed out In earlier posts today, I talked about the EURUSD and the 1.13927 level and the GBPUSD and the 1.27244 to 1.27313 area. The EURUSD did move up toward the 1.13927 only to turn away at 1.13917. We trade at 1.1380 currently. The
The Feb low at 1.3068 approached… The USDCAD has pushed back down after the BOC Business outlook survey came in better than expected and points to the BOC sitting on the sidelines (see Adam’s post here). Technincally, the low from February 1, came in at 1.3068. The low earlier today reached 1.30666. We just traded
The price is above the 100 and 200 day MA and 50% retracement levels The NZDUSD since bottoming on June 14, has stepped higher and higher. Over the last 10 days, there was one day with a 1 pip decline. The rest have seen higher closes from the previous day. Today, the price moved above
Stretches above 100 hour MA. Can it stay above that MA (1.2700 level) and The GBPUSD has just stretched to a new session high and in the process has moved above the 1.12700 level and the 100 hour MA (at the same level). Technically, the lows this week have continued the swing area trend going
WSJ report OPEC will extend its production cuts into the second half of the year, as widely expected. The OPEC meeting is Monday and WSJ reporters cited OPEC and Saudi officials. Part of the extension will include pressure on Iraq and Nigeria to meet quotas. The report also says some members will push for deeper
Week end/month end/quarter end should lead to massive volume today WIth today being week end/month end/quarter end, it could lead to massive volume and price swings. Nevertheless, the major indices are higher. Financials are a bright spot after the Stress Report led to passing grades and increases in dividends and buybacks as a reward for
An update on the expiries list at play ahead of month-end, quarter-end trading EUR/USD: 1.1320-30 (€846m), 1.1350 (€413m), 1.1375-85 (€1.1b), 1.1400 (€421m) USD/JPY: 106.75-85 ($1.7b), 107.50 ($2.2b), 107.75-85 ($770m), 108.00-05 ($1.1b), 109.00 ($1.3b) USD/CAD: 1.3090-00 ($1.1b), 1.3150 ($440m), 1.3280 ($1.3b) ForexLive A bit of a slight update to the expiries list earlier in the day.
The dollar is losing a bit of ground in early trades in Europe ForexLive The greenback is holding weaker as we begin the session and we’re seeing EUR/USD now inch back above its 100-hour MA (red line) as buyers look to establish a more bullish bias to wrap up the week. Of note, there is
Via Bloomberg Despite indications from the Federal Reserve this week that a 50bps cut in July would be overcooking the goose, the rates markets have not moved very much. US Treasuries sold off on Wednesday, but the base case remains the same for three Fed rate cuts this year. The Bloomberg piece I read suggested
Markets are paralysed ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting tomorrow ForexLive And besides month-end and quarter-end rebalancing flows, I would not expect traders and investors to bet on any solid outcome ahead of trade talks tomorrow. The yen and swissie are holding slight gains but nothing overwhelming as cautious sentiment is observed before the Trump-Xi meeting.
A brief snippet from a Deutsche Bank note on the Fed (and ECB): The previous rate cut easing cycle had the Federal Reserve beginning to ease at above 5% And for the European Central Bank, 4% But now: The problem is, the bottom is not very far This is not an environment where previous easing
BOC report is due at 1430 GMT on Friday 28 June 2019 via Scotia: Q1 Survey (BOS) lost momentum in areas like investment plans, hiring plans and inflation expectations Future sales growth improved somewhat The extent to which the Mexican tariff skirmish may influence the BOS results could be taken as reason to toss out