Technical Analysis

EUR/USD holds lower as focus turns towards CPI data over the next two days

EUR/USD sits near 1.1350 ahead of Spain and Germany CPI data today


The near-term bias in the pair remains more neutral now after price falls below the 100-hour MA (red line) @ 1.1370 but holds above the 200-hour MA (blue line) @ 1.1302. Currently, there’s still some support from the overnight low @ 1.1348 as well as the week’s low @ 1.1344 as the focus for the euro turns towards CPI data over the next two days.

Today, we’ll have CPI figures from Spain and Germany before we get France, Italy and Eurozone figures tomorrow. Expectation is for price pressures to hold somewhat steady after the Easter effects in April faded as what we saw in the May readings.

Should that be the case, the euro is expected to maintain some steady footing as the attention will shift back towards the Trump-Xi meeting over the weekend. The risk for the euro is that if inflation pressures fall off dramatically and spurs the potential for the ECB to introduce more stimulus sooner rather than later.

But barring any major surprises later today, EUR/USD price action may be contained around current levels for the time being. Of note today, there are decent-sized expiries around 1.1335-50 that could help anchor price action and large ones seen at 1.1400 to put a lid on things if price does move higher.

In any case, keep an eye on the key hourly moving averages as well as the 200-day moving average @ 1.1344 as those will be key levels in determining the market bias in the pair ahead of the weekend.

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