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US July CPI data due Tuesday 13 August 2019 – preview

Inflation data due from the US at 1230GMT. Headline CPI expected at 0.3% (prior 0.2%)

  • 1.7% y/y (prior 1.6%

CPI excluding food and energy expected 0.2%, prior 0.3% m/m

  • 2.1% expected, 2.1% prior y/y

Couple of quick previews. 

Scotia:

  • expected to reveal stable headline CPI at 1.7% y/y and unchanged core at 2.1% y/y
  • The fact that core CPI tends to overshoot core PCE inflation by several tenths of a percentage point will mitigate the relevance of the release particularly in the context of the Fed’s guidance that it views its 2% inflation target as a symmetrical goal, thus implying tolerance toward overshooting

Deutsche Bank expecting lower than consensus:

  • expect +0.13% m/m
  • mainly reflecting some unwind of the drivers that drove the strong reading in June
  •  It’s worth noting that markets are still pricing in 63bps of cuts by the Fed this year so it’ll be interesting to see if this data makes much of a dent in that

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