Swiss government cuts 2019 GDP growth forecast to 0.8% from 1.2% previously

Latest economic forecasts released by SECO – 17 September 2019

  • 2020 GDP growth forecast 1.7% (unchanged)
  • 2019 inflation forecast 0.5% (previously 0.6%)
  • 2020 inflation forecast 0.4% (previously 0.6%)


The prior (June) forecasts can be found here. The government says that the economic outlook has become “gloomier” with the franc’s appreciation in recent months hampering exports and the downturn in Germany’s manufacturing sector has also played a part in that.

Not the most surprising of things and the downgrades to the inflation forecasts should see a similar move by the SNB later this week as well.

It remains to be seen if the SNB will cut rates later this week as there is an argument that they may want to keep some capacity in case a no-deal Brexit materialises. The fact that the franc hasn’t significantly strengthened against the euro despite the ECB decision last week may give time some room to tinker with, but don’t expect that to last long.

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