Central Banks

Ahead of the FOMC minutes this week, a forecast of an October rate cut

UBS are citing the US slowdown to potentially arrive sooner than expected

  • Which, they say, opens the door to a Fed funds rate cut in October.

(Federal Open Market Committee meeting is October 29 and 30)

Citing trade tension with China -  a substantial shock to the economy – tariffs causing a slump in private demand

  • tarfifs weakening employment in manufacturing, retail

Following that the bank expects further cuts in:

  • January, March and June 2020
  • And also say that due to the run of recent data there is risk is to the downside for the Fed to cut more.

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