Technical Analysis

NZDUSD falls below 200 hour and trend line as reversal lower continues

Up and back down

The NZDUSD moved higher earlier in the day on the back of a government surplus for the year.  The price moved up to the swing high from September 26 (at 0.63261). There were other temporary highs from October 4 near that level as well. 

The New York session has seen a steady move back to the downside, helped by risk off flows. The pair has also cracked below some technical levels in the process.

Looking at the hourly chart above, the pair in the last hour fell below its 100 hour moving average and lower trend line at the 0.62983 level. The low extended to 0.6289 so far. The 38.2% retracement comes in at 0.62849 (also near the low for the day) and the 200 hour moving average comes in at 0.62825.  A move below each would open the door for a move toward the 50% retracement at 0.62693.

Close risk for sellers now comes in against that broken trend line and 100 hour moving average. Stay below, keeps the intraday sellers more than happy.  A move above muddies the water on the failed break.   


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